Weather forecasting

Lore & Background

Ancient forecasting methods date back to 650 BC, when Babylonians predicted weather from cloud patterns and astrology. Around 350 BC, Aristotle described weather patterns in Meteorologica, and later Theophrastus compiled the Book of Signs. In 904 AD, Ibn Wahshiyya's Nabatean Agriculture discussed weather forecasting based on atmospheric changes, lunar phases, and wind movements. These early methods relied on pattern recognition, such as red sunsets indicating fair weather, though many predictions did not withstand rigorous testing. The modern age of forecasting began with the electric telegraph in 1835, enabling rapid transmission of weather reports. Numerical weather prediction emerged in the 20th century. In 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson published 'Weather Prediction By Numerical Process,' describing a finite differencing scheme for atmospheric equations.

Reader's Guide

Weather forecasting has evolved from ancient pattern recognition to a sophisticated science relying on computer models and human expertise. Its significance lies in protecting lives and property through warnings, supporting agriculture and commodity markets, aiding utility companies in demand estimation, and guiding daily activities. The inaccuracy of forecasts stems from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, computational limits, measurement errors, and incomplete understanding of processes. Ensembles and model consensus help narrow errors. The legacy of early pioneers like Beaufort and FitzRoy, along with the development of numerical methods, underpins modern forecasting, which remains a vital part of the global economy and daily life.

Did You Know?

• The term 'weather forecast' was coined by Robert FitzRoy in the 19th century.
• In 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson published a book describing numerical weather prediction, based on notes he worked on as an ambulance driver in World War I.
• Ancient Babylonians predicted weather from cloud patterns and astrology as early as 650 BC.